21 October 2025
With the Golden Week (1-8 October) behind us, it is a fitting time to take stock of the latest trends in Chinese consumer behaviour. The data shows a mixed bag: domestic trips hit a record 888 million and tourism spending reached RMB809bn (Ministry of Culture and Tourism, 9 October), but we estimate the average daily growth was up only 1.6% y-o-y and 1% y-o-y, respectively. On a per-capita trip basis, spending slightly decreased by 0.6% y-o-y, or 2.6% relative to 2019.
Tax revenue data showed that the services sector outperformed, helped in part by government support, although movie sales disappointed. Meanwhile, overseas travel picked up, with inbound foreign travel up 20% y-o-y, boosted by China’s visa-free entry programmes, while mainland Chinese residents saw increased international travel of 10% y-o-y.
The muted Golden Week performance carries on some of the recent trends as seen in softer consumption data. Retail sales, growing under 4% y-o-y in recent months, have faced some headwinds due to lingering labour market and property sector pressures. Wage growth is running below the pre-pandemic level at c5% y-o-y versus c9% in 2019. Consumer confidence has yet to pick up, while the youth unemployment rate reached 18.9% in August.
On a brighter note, the government recently announced that the last batch of subsidies for goods trade-ins had been issued as of 29 September (NDRC, 29 September), involving RMB69bn of central government funds and c7bn of local government funds. This likely contributed to the outperformance in the Golden Week data in certain goods, such as consumer electronics, and means we should see some continued support in the rest of the year.
Source: Wind, HSBC
Source: Wind, HSBC
The push for more services consumption has been clear in recent government policies, most recently with plans for services and sports consumption issued in September. Based on the retail sales breakdown, the increased focus on services consumption seems to be helping sectors, such as cultural goods, and sports and entertainment goods.
The next steps are set to bring structural reforms aimed at enhancing social safety nets and urbanisation efforts. Recent policies to boost basic care subsidies, like childcare and elderly care, show a shift towards supporting a broader range of services. Additionally, there is a focus on providing social benefits tied to permanent residence and advancing new urbanisation plans.
At the time of writing, China’s policymakers are convening for the Forth Plenum (20-23 October) where they will review the 15th Five-Year Plan, setting priorities from 2026 to 2030. We expect a strong emphasis on consumption-driven growth, supported by services consumption and structural reforms to expand social safety net coverage. Other key areas of focus may include fostering innovation, green development and opening-up reforms.
Source: LSEG Eikon
*Past performance is not an indication of future returns
Source: LSEG Eikon. As of 20 October 2025, market close
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1. This report is dated as at 21 October 2025.
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